{"id":2477,"date":"2023-01-31T15:56:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-31T14:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/?p=2477"},"modified":"2024-02-23T12:16:43","modified_gmt":"2024-02-23T11:16:43","slug":"information-uncertainty-and-cognitive-biases-were-all-irrational-in-predictable-ways","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/en\/information-uncertainty-and-cognitive-biases-were-all-irrational-in-predictable-ways\/","title":{"rendered":"Information, uncertainty, and cognitive biases: we\u2019re all irrational in predictable ways"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>I\u2019ve talked to some interesting folks.&nbsp;They are experts in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Calanus, or plankton generally,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>fishing for Calanus,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>technology that can be used to monitor and understand Calanus,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>how data and information are used to manage Calanus, or<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>some combination of the above.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, a bunch of smart people who know a lot about things that I don\u2019t know a lot about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"454\" src=\"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Calanus-finmarchicus-1.jpg\" alt=\"Photography of a very small animal.\" class=\"wp-image-2467\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Calanus-finmarchicus-1.jpg 605w, https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Calanus-finmarchicus-1-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Calanus finmarchicus is found in enormous amounts in the northern Atlantic Ocean.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I asked them about their work, and how it relates to understanding, managing, or catching Calanus. I asked them about the kinds of data and information they use, and how they think about big data. I asked them about how they think data and information connect to making decisions about Calanus fishing and management, and what role they play in making those connections. And I asked them about trust, and how they think about it \u2013 for themselves personally, in their work, in data and information, in decision-making processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One thing stands out from the conversations I\u2019ve had: uncertainty in science and society. The researchers I\u2019ve spoken with are painfully aware of the limitations of the methods they use and the data they work with. Being uniformly highly trained experts, using cutting-edge technologies, they will tell you, at great length, about what they don\u2019t know, what can go wrong, and how they may or may not catch any errors. In short, they\u2019re obsessed with uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Uncertainty and the science of cognitive biases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In society, uncertainty is a funny thing. Humans appear to be hard-wired to be uncomfortable with uncertainty and to look for ways to resolve it. We are, all of us, subject to cognitive biases, or predictable departures from purely rational behavior, that can affect our judgments when we face uncertainty. Here are three examples drawn from psychologist Daniel Kahneman\u2019s book Thinking, Fast and Slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"403\" src=\"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Daniel-Kahneman-1.jpg\" alt=\"A picture of a man speaking in a microphone.\" class=\"wp-image-2469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Daniel-Kahneman-1.jpg 605w, https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Daniel-Kahneman-1-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daniel Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One is anchoring bias, whereby a number affects the estimation of an uncertain value. In an experiment Kahneman conducted with Amos Tversky, they provided some people with a \u2018random\u2019 low number and others with a \u2018random\u2019 high number, and then asked participants to estimate an unrelated value (the percentage of African nations in the UN). People with a low number gave a significantly lower estimate than those with a high number, though, rationally, the \u2018random\u2019 spin of a wheel has nothing to do with African nations\u2019 UN presence. Faced with uncertainty, our brains want a reference point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">See previous blogs by Kate Crosman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ntnu.no\/blogger\/teknat\/en\/2021\/10\/05\/introducing-kate-crosman\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Moving to Trondheim to work with Big Ocean Data by Kate Crosman<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ntnu.no\/blogger\/teknat\/en\/2021\/12\/06\/how-tiny-zooplankton-can-help-us-understand-trust-in-big-ocean-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">How tiny zooplankton can help us understand trust in Big Ocean Data by&nbsp;Kate Crosman<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ntnu.no\/blogger\/teknat\/en\/2022\/09\/05\/home-of-the-northernmost-magic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Home of the northernmost magic by Kate Crosman<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another example is the availability heuristic. Sometimes it\u2019s easy to think of examples of an event because it happens frequently \u2013 it seemed like it rained a lot in Trondheim last fall because there were a lot of rainy days in Trondheim last fall. This is what makes this a heuristic (a rule of thumb) rather than just a bias. But other things\u2014 personal experience, media attention, recency \u2014 can also make us overestimate frequency simply because it\u2019s easier to bring an example to mind. That\u2019s where the availability heuristic slides into a bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A third example is loss aversion. We tend to negatively value our losses more than we positively value equivalent gains. In short, we lose more satisfaction from losing 500 NOK than we gain from winning 500 NOK. This bias holds equally true for potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"403\" src=\"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Loss-aversion-1.jpg\" alt=\"An illustration of loss aversion.\" class=\"wp-image-2473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Loss-aversion-1.jpg 605w, https:\/\/nyheter.ntnu.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Loss-aversion-1-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Loss aversion is our tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As these experiments have mostly involved participants from Western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic (WEIRD) populations, we\u2019re not yet entirely sure whether these cognitive biases affect all kinds of people equally. The scientists I\u2019ve spoken with are WEIRD, too (hmm\u2026), but they\u2019re also trained to think hyper-critically about data and information, using systematic approaches and rigorous tools. Indeed, much scientific training focuses on understanding, categorizing, and quantifying uncertainty so that the bounds of what research can tell us are clearly defined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is that scientific uncertainty is sometimes communicated in ways that can be misunderstood by people who aren\u2019t scientifically trained. Communicating scientific uncertainty also does little to address the ways that people hear and receive information in non-scientific contexts: filtered through cognitive biases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">So, what does this mean for trust in big data for Calanus?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, if we want people to trust our data \u2013 we need to understand how those decisions are likely to be perceived by the people they affect. Take the example of opposition to the coastal Calanus fishery from cod and herring fishers, who worry about bycatch of fish larvae in Calanus nets. How is a recent proposal to increase the coastal Calanus quota by up to five times likely to be perceived? Anchoring bias is likely to make that increase especially concerning. Resistance may be strongest where cod and herring fishers can directly observe Calanus boats out on the water, thanks to availability bias. And resistance is likely to be reinforced by loss aversion, as we weigh even uncertain losses especially heavily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Can different kinds of data and information regimes influence such resistance? I\u2019m hoping to learn more about exactly that in the upcoming stage of my research \u2013 stay tuned!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even while I was preparing for the field expedition to Svalbard, post-polar adventure and crashing back down to earth, other work carried on. In fact, while learning more about trust in big data for ocean decision-making, specifically the case of Calanus finmarchicus, I\u2019ve talked to some interesting folks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":2467,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[127],"tags":[],"theme":[],"class_list":["post-2477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":{"exclude_from_frontpage":false,"frontpage_image":"","frontpage_title":"","force_single_display":false,"authors":[3655],"external_authors":null,"contact_persons":null,"external_contact_persons":null,"lang_malform":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Information, uncertainty, and cognitive biases: we\u2019re all irrational in predictable ways - NTNU Nyheter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Even while I was preparing for the field expedition to Svalbard, post-polar adventure and crashing back down to earth, other work carried on. 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